Irsay About to Take a Huge Risk

Colts Owner Jim Irsay

There is a theory in the business world that in order to have big success you cannot be afraid to take big gambles. Based on that theory, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay is about to take one of the biggest risks in the history of the National Football League.

By now you know what’s going on with the Colts and Peyton Manning. No one knows, not even Manning himself, if he will be able to play in the 2012 season. Normally, teams would wait and see if their superstar would be able to make it on to the football field. The Colts do not have that luxury.

The team owes Manning a $28 million dollar bonus on March 8^th. Those who are ‘plugged in’ feel that Manning isn’t going to push that deadline back, nor should he have to. The problem is the Colts don’t want to give Manning that bonus if he isn’t going to be able to play.

In fairness to the Colts, they have every right to be apprehensive about giving Manning that check. It would be an absolute disaster if they gave him the money and he wasn’t able to play in 2012. It would be the kind of move that could set the franchise back for years.

So when it’s all said and done, the Colts will let Manning go. And that move would be the biggest gamble that Irsay could make.

There are two ways it could go wrong for the Colts. The conventional wisdom says they will draft Andrew Luck, Stanford’s star quarterback, with the No. 1 overall pick in the April draft. Reports have been circulating for weeks now that Luck will be the name on the card when it is handed to NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. But what if Luck doesn’t pan out?

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Luck will bust out. There have been many highly drafted quarterbacks that didn’t make it. I can give you a list of quarterbacks that failed to make it despite the fact they were drafted with high first round picks. Ryan Leaf comes to mind. So does Tim Couch. Akili Smith and David Klingler were two quarterbacks drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals that never made it. Would you like me to keep going, or do you get my point?

So Luck isn’t a lock to be the next best thing since sliced bread. And if he doesn’t live up to expectations, the Colts (especially if they part ways with Manning) will be behind the eight ball. A quarterback drafted No. 1 overall that doesn’t succeed can set an organization back for a long time. If the Colts miss on Luck, it will cripple the franchise.

The other thing that could go wrong for the Colts would be to watch Manning go somewhere else and pick up where he left off when he was still healthy. There is a very good chance that could happen. Manning has not displayed any signs that he has lost a thing on the field. There is every chance in the world that he could get healthy and continue to produce at the level we have been accustomed to seeing over the years.

There also is a good chance that he could hook up with a team that isn’t far away from putting it all together and winning it all, like he did at the end of the 2006 season, when the Colts beat the Bears for the one Super Bowl they won with Manning under center.

Let’s just say that Manning winds up with the San Francisco 49ers (the best spot for him in my opinion). The Niners have a very good defense. It’s a championship level defense. They also have a damn good running back in Frank Gore and a coach that knows how to push all the right buttons in Jim Harbaugh. If they add Manning to the mix (with apologies to Alex Smith), they would have to be considered one of the favorites to win it all in 2012.

Of course, the Colts could release Manning, draft Luck, and wind up having success. That is possible. The 49ers dealt Joe Montana to the Kansas City Chiefs and wound up winning a Super Bowl in 1994 with Steve Young. But the difference between that situation and what the Colts have to deal with is that Young was already established as one of the better quarterbacks in the league when they traded Montana. Luck, like every other young quarterback, is going to have his share of growing pains. And the Colts were 2-14 this past season. They have bottomed out. They need to rebuild. The Niners of the early 1990’s were contenders every single year.

Make no mistake about it. The decision that the Colts face regarding Peyton Manning is a monumental one. They will likely release one of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen in order to go with an unproven kid. It is not just a big gamble. It is a humongous gamble.

But like I said before, if you want to have big success in business, you cannot be afraid of taking big risks.

It’s your move, Jim Irsay.