Change is About to Catch Up with Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning

There is one constant in the NFL. Change.

It happens all the time in the league. Players move around. Coaches go from job to job. General managers go from place to place. Change is a fact of life in football.

These days, it’s very rare to see a player spend his entire career in one place. And I’m not just talking about average players. I am talking about star players, too. Dan Marino, who spent his whole career in Miami, is the exception rather than the rule. Joe Montana finished out his Hall of Fame career in Kansas City. Emmitt Smith was a member of the Arizona Cardinals. I could go on and on, but there is a larger point here that I am trying to get at here.

And that larger point is this. Don’t expect Peyton Manning, if he plays football in 2012, to be a member of the Indianapolis Colts.

I know it seems strange to read that. And it’ll be strange to see him wearing another uniform. But if he is able to return from the neck surgeries that kept him sidelined for all of the 2011 season, the colors Manning will wear on NFL Sundays will not be the colors of the Colts.

The signs are all there, and even Manning has said it himself. Bill Polian, the man who built the Colts into Super Bowl champions, is gone. Jim Caldwell, the man Tony Dungy handpicked to succeed him as head coach, was fired. And the players that Manning has been used to seeing on a daily basis are slowly walking out the door themselves.

The future Hall of Famer sees the writing on the wall, telling Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star that, "It's not a real good environment down there right now, to say the least. Everybody's walking around on eggshells. I don't recognize our building right now. There's such complete and total change."

That wave of change is going to include Manning. The new coach in town is Chuck Pagano, who appreciates having a good quarterback, but is used to winning because of strong defenses. He has no ties to Manning. Neither does new general manager Ryan Grigson. There is a new regime in charge of the Colts, and they aren’t going to keep anyone around out of loyalty. And that includes Manning.

Especially when there is no guarantee that Manning will return from his medical issues. And even if he does return, will he be the same Manning we last saw in 2010? Or will he be a Manning who plays at a somewhat diminished level? No one knows which Manning we will see if and when he makes his return. Add to that the $28 million option bonus he is due to receive on March 8 and it’s very unlikely that he will be a Colt in 2012.

Yes, it comes down to something as simple as money. Owner Jim Irsay is no fool. He is a businessman. He knows what good risks are and he knows what bad risks are. As much as he probably would like to keep Manning around and not take the PR hit that will come with Manning’s release, do you think it makes good business sense to pay someone $28 million dollars if there is a chance he might not play again? I don’t have Irsay’s money or business acumen, but even I know that would be a bad business move.

As Manning told the Indianapolis Star a couple of days ago, he will sit down with Irsay at some point and the two of them will come to a decision about his future in Indianapolis. The two will talk about a lot of different things. His health being at the top of the list. They will talk about the changes made in the front office and on the coaching staff. And they will also talk about the fact that Andrew Luck, the star quarterback from Stanford, is going to be the team’s selection with the No. 1 pick in April’s draft. When the two emerge from their meeting, I would be very surprised to hear that Manning is still a Colt.

Where Manning winds up is a subject that we can bring up at a different time (though I think that the most intriguing spot for him is with the San Francisco 49ers). The subject at hand is change. It, as I mentioned at the beginning of the column, is the one constant in the NFL.

Change has hit Indianapolis very hard. It started with Manning missing the entire 2011 season. It continued with the firings of both Bill and Chris Polian. Change also saw Jim Caldwell leave town. Change also swept Grigson and Pagano into the roles they currently have.

And change will ultimately lead the Colts and Peyton Manning to part ways.